Weekly Market Insights | AI Spending Doubts, $116 Brent and a Fed Decision Week

This week’s financial news centers on a Federal Reserve decision, the busiest week of third-quarter earnings season, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon all reporting, and the first estimate of third-quarter economic growth.

Stocks were mixed last week. For the week ending Friday, October 23, the S&P 500 slipped 0.47% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq fell 0.71% to 25,955.34, as doubts about the cost of the AI spending race returned. The Dow gained 0.41% to 52,215.16, and small caps (Russell 2000) led with a 2.00% gain. The VIX volatility index ended near 19.5. Oil kept climbing: Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest level since late April, and WTI settled at $103.27. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week near 5.0%. This week brings the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, October 28, followed by third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation on Thursday.

AI Spending Doubts Return: What Meta, Tesla and SpaceX Told Investors

Last week’s biggest market story was not whether AI is growing, but what it costs. On Thursday, October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.60%, its steepest one-day drop since early June, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7%. Intel, AMD, Sandisk and Marvell each dropped more than 8%. Tech steadied on Friday, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week lower.

The trigger was Wednesday’s earnings. Meta beat expectations, with third-quarter revenue up 26% to $64.6 billion, but it raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending forecast to $135–$145 billion and reported its first cash outflow in more than a decade. Its shares fell 7% on Thursday. Tesla’s revenue was flat at about $28 billion and operating income fell 56%, as spending on AI and its Optimus robot rose sharply. Tesla shares fell 3.1%. SpaceX, which reported on Tuesday, was a bright spot: revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, well ahead of forecasts, though it also guided to $35–$40 billion of capital spending in the fourth quarter alone.

What last week’s moves signal for investors:

The market is now grading AI on cash flow, not just growth. Strong revenue was not enough for Meta. Investors want to see that heavy spending on data centers will pay off, and they are less patient when bond yields are near 5%.
Chip stocks remain the most volatile part of the market. The semiconductor index is more than 26% below its June record, though still up about 50% this year. Large swings in both directions are likely to continue.
Leadership is broadening. Small caps gained 2% for the week and the Dow rose while the Nasdaq fell. Procter & Gamble rose 5.6% and Lockheed Martin 7.0% after their results on Thursday, a reminder that steady earners can hold up when tech struggles.
New competition can hit established leaders quickly. AT&T and T-Mobile each fell more than 6% on Friday after a report that SpaceX sought thousands of cell sites for a possible fourth U.S. wireless carrier. American Express fell 3.9% despite raising its profit forecast, as it also announced plans to cut 5% of its workforce.

The practical takeaway: AI remains a powerful long-term theme, but a week like this shows why it should be one part of a diversified portfolio rather than the whole plan. Balancing growth with quality income and other sectors can help smooth the ride.

US Market Performance – Week Ending 10/23/2026

Oil at a Five-Month High as the Fed Meets: What to Watch on Wednesday

Oil continued its climb last week. Brent rose 3.1% on Friday to $116.72 a barrel, up about 6% for the week, after attacks on Saudi targets by Iran-backed Houthi forces renewed fears of Middle East supply disruptions. WTI settled at $103.27. The energy sector rose about 2.5% on Friday to a record high, and SLB jumped 6.7% after beating profit estimates. Higher fuel prices are also weighing on households: the University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment reading edged down and remains near a record low.

That is the backdrop for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed raised rates in September to a 3.75%–4.00% range, its first hike in more than three years. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday, October 28, but are pricing a meaningful chance of another quarter-point hike before year-end.

What to watch this week:

The Fed’s tone matters more than the decision. Investors will listen closely to Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday for hints about December. Any dissents in favor of a hike would signal that pressure for tighter policy is building.
Thursday’s data will test the Fed’s view. The first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, both arrive Thursday morning. A hot PCE reading would add to the case for a December hike.
Labor costs round out the week. Friday’s Employment Cost Index shows whether wage growth is adding to inflation pressure.
Energy stocks report into strength. ExxonMobil and Chevron report Friday, with oil prices well above where they started the quarter.

The steady framework: some energy exposure as a partial inflation hedge, quality income as a core, some intermediate-duration bonds, and avoiding concentrated bets on any single Fed outcome. A week packed with a Fed decision and big earnings is a time to rely on a balanced plan, not to react to every headline.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: No major U.S. economic reports scheduled

Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders (September, advance); New Home Sales (September); S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August); Conference Board Consumer Confidence (October); Federal Reserve two-day meeting begins

Wednesday: Advance Economic Indicators: goods trade, retail and wholesale inventories (September); EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Fed policy decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and Chair Warsh’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET)

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Q3 advance estimate; Personal Income & Outlays with the PCE Price Index (September); Weekly Jobless Claims; Federal Reserve balance sheet

Friday: Employment Cost Index (Q3)

Looking ahead: the ISM Manufacturing Index arrives Monday, November 2; the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September follows Tuesday, November 3; and the October jobs report is due Friday, November 6.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

About one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, led by Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, whose AI spending plans will be closely watched after last week’s selloff.

Verizon (VZ) — Monday, October 26
Coca-Cola (KO) — Tuesday, October 27
Boeing (BA) — Tuesday, October 27
Visa (V) — Tuesday, October 27
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Wednesday, October 28
Microsoft (MSFT) — Wednesday, October 28
Mastercard (MA) — Thursday, October 29
Caterpillar (CAT) — Thursday, October 29
Merck (MRK) — Thursday, October 29
Eli Lilly (LLY) — Thursday, October 29
Amazon (AMZN) — Thursday, October 29
ExxonMobil (XOM) — Friday, October 30
Chevron (CVX) — Friday, October 30

Looking ahead: Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday, November 2.

Tax Tip: Q4 Is the Last Chance for Tax-Loss Harvesting — Act Before December 31

With the final quarter of the tax year underway, the window for tax-loss harvesting is open, and it closes on December 31. In a year with sharp swings in chip stocks, AI names and long-term bonds, many portfolios are carrying a mix of unrealized gains and losses that can be managed before year-end.

Realized losses can offset capital gains dollar-for-dollar. Net losses beyond current-year gains can offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income annually ($1,500 if married filing separately), with any unused remainder carrying forward to future tax years. Three rules to follow, in consultation with a qualified tax professional:

Observe the wash-sale rule. The IRS disallows a loss if the same or a substantially identical security is purchased within 30 days before or after the sale. Replacing a sold position with a similar, but not identical, fund can maintain market exposure while preserving the tax benefit.
Use specific lot identification. Instructing the custodian to sell the highest-cost shares first can maximize the realized loss today.
Know how short-term and long-term losses work. Short-term losses offset short-term gains first, and long-term losses offset long-term gains first. Because short-term gains are taxed at ordinary income rates, the order can make a meaningful difference.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please consult with a qualified tax professional to discuss your specific tax issues.

Tip adapted from IRS.

Footnotes and Sources

Wesley Samson
Wesley@samsonfinancial.net
863-345-0538
Samson Financial, LLC.
https://www.samsonfinancial.net

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